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VACCINES

IF and WHEN

· Acing the Pandemic

President Putin announced that Russia has approved the first vaccine, ready for the public in January, Russia hasn’t finished human trials- usually the final test before approval. Of more than 30 phase three trials for vaccines, 8 are in phase three.

AstraZeneca and Oxford have a promising vaccine that has attracted 2 deals if their trials prove out... the U.S. for 300 million doses, and Russia for manufacturing rights. The U.S. has also committed to purchase 100 million doses from the Moderna Company. Johnson & Johnson has a promising vaccine also.

Even with accelerated testing and better than 10 billion dollars spent so far, the most optimistic forecast by scientists is that we will not see approved vaccines before we are several months into next year.

THE BIG IFS: IF we follow the basic steps below to eradicate the virus, and IF an effective vaccine is proven effective, we are probably another 6 months away from a more normal existence. All of this can be scuttled if the politicians don’t support the science.

BEWARE accelerated schedules. It takes time to test new vaccines to prove that they work at all, determine if they are safe, and how long they protect.

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